PDF World Economic Outlook, September 2006: Financial Systems and Economic Cycles

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While in the past economic output growth was strongly dependent on the performance of the U. The long awaited European recovery finally materialized in Corporate restructuring improved competitiveness and increased consumption and investment spending particularly in France and Germany , contributing to the turnaround.

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Consumer confidence is robust. Real output growth is forecasted at 2 percent for , compared to 2. As a net oil importer, the outlook depends significantly on future crude oil prices.

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Similar to U. Two long-term trends are alarming: first, productivity growth in most European countries has declined in recent years and jeopardizes future competitiveness in a global market. Second, economic fundamentals among member countries of the Euro area are drifting apart.

The International Economy

While countries like Germany and France effectively managed an economic restructuring toward higher value-added production, other countries like Italy or Spain have been less successful. While per unit labor costs decreased in Germany and stayed more or less flat in France since the introduction of the euro, they have increased significantly in Italy and Spain.

Over the long run, this might undermine the commitment to the Euro currency because depreciation might be too tempting for populist politicians.

The United Kingdom will do slightly better than continental Europe with an expected economic expansion of 2. Job creation, consumption, and investment spending are robust and the economy expands around its potential output growth. The Bank of Japan has begun slowly redeeming excess liquidity and is expected to slightly increase interest rates in the year to come.

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However, it will be crucial not to increase rates too fast, as doing so would risk the economy falling back into deflation. The Japanese society is rapidly aging and the existing government debt burden of around percent of GDP asks for a reduction of fiscal deficits and potentially future tax increases that might jeopardize economic growth. While many experts expected a cooling down of the Chinese economy, the opposite has happened—it is growing even faster at around 10 percent in , and the same is projected for Trade relations are rapidly expanding with the United States, Europe, Japan, and other Asian neighbor countries.

India is expected to continue its outstanding growth performance, with an expected real growth rate of 8. Overall, emerging Asia is doing particularly well and the area is expected to grow in by more than 8 percent. Intra-regional trade and capital flows are increasing dynamically. Several Asian economies—China, South Korea, Taiwan, and others—continued to buy dollars in the foreign exchange market in order to avoid an appreciation of their currencies and jeopardizing export-led growth.

A special report on the world economy

This contributes significantly to the worldwide current account imbalances. For the region, an overall current account surplus of 4.

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  4. It is problematic, however, to determine how long these countries can pursue this strategy without sooner or later losing control over their domestic money supply and causing an unhealthy inflationary trend. Strong demand from the United States caused a further increase of Mexican and Canadian exports to America and contributes to a robust economic development in both countries. Ladda ned.

    Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook (WEO)

    Spara som favorit. The IMF's World Economic Outlook is packed with country specific facts, figures, and worldwide projections that present the outlook for growth, inflation, trade, and other economic developments in a clear, practical format. Leading international economists pull together the latest data on key topics, producing informed projections and policy analyses that show where the global economy is headed in the years to come. Business executives, policymakers, bankers, investors, marketing strategists, and economists worldwide refer to the WEO with confidence because it delivers a balanced view of the current economic situation, built upon the respected and extensive macroeconomic expertise and statistical resources of the IMF.

    The WEO is the product of a unique international exercise in information gathering and analysis performed by over 1, economists on the IMF staff.